Tuesday, February 22, 2011
; DSK, our only chance?
I just read the article in Marianne just before the speech TV of the current president of the IMF. It confirms the effect produced by the guy at the show. Sound, efficient, intelligent in its spread, prudent. I am not talking about his potential talents French leader, but his ability to confront Sarkozy in 2012. In any case, polls are overwhelming in his favor, and Nicolas Domenach fine analysis of "projective capacity" of the character: the fantasy of the ideal candidate to get rid of Naboth Elysian, far ahead of his rival, Socialist Party (Aubry, Hollande, Royal's far above zero)
Other candidates objection raised by the survey are divided into three groups:
-extras (about 1% of voting intentions): Nathalie Arthaud, the new figurehead of Workers' Struggle ; Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, the last of the real Gaullists.
- Tasks: (between 5 and 10%), Eva Joly, Mélenchon Besancenot, Villepin, Bayrou. They are there to annoy the "big candidates," and as a reserve of votes more or less marketable.
- On 3 e man, or rather woman, Marine Le Pen, who fondles 17-18%. She has already begun to siphon militants NPA of Besancenot too ... that'll teach you to flirt with beards and envoilées, comrade!
Nevertheless, rejection of Sarkozy is such that one can reasonably expect that released next year. DSK prevail at 2 e round with 61% of the vote! This recalls the fantasies of Jacques Delors in 1994-95. Remain cautious and are considering the main case.
1) DSK is present, and its "socialist comrades" play the game actively supporting his campaign. Except twist of fate, it prevails widely and we are rid of the worst president in the history of the Fifth Republic. Champagne! But to do what next? Do better than Sarko, it will not be too hard (especially in foreign policy, where we are fighting right now all the records of blunders). Break with the capitalist decay, despair and an overwhelming sense of national decline, there will be much more severe.
is where the voter must make a conscious effort of constitutional thought, and do not forget that after the presidential elections, there are laws. That DSK can govern, certainly, but not with a pink room ready to swallow anything in the name of "realism" and "Europe" and all these lies that we have both wrong, as the old Marshal said.
2) DSK does not show up (we did it Delors) to continue to shine in the firmament technocratic and financial world. Or, his candidacy is nipped in the bud at the primary socialist ... which is the same, but worse for the SP with heartbreaks and settling of scores that are seemingly a few months before presidential elections. Sarkozy wins at 2 e turn narrowly, against any socialist candidate.
A chance to win one of lost a chance to scratch: see Case No. 1. The voter then makes intelligent dam UMP by any means. The famous presidential dynamic, close to zero in this case (except once twisted type terrorist attack at the last moment), will not play for the members of the outgoing majority. In fact, we are off again for the 4 th cohabitation of the Fifth Republic. Martine Aubry with Matignon? A lesser evil, after all, because the situation will not allow the continuation of the famous "reforms" that liberals of all stripes are calling for. Few years of respite for the rest of the French model, it's always good to take.
3) A match Marine Le Pen Sarkozy to 2 e turn. Any voter left magnet France knows what it needs to be done. Obviously not play the useful idiots of the liberal right, as in 2002: manifest "against fascism", then vote Sarkozy. Might as well put a bullet in the head! Two things:
-Abstain. No white vote, which is useless (no one ever says the white vote, considered a tie, and thrown in the trash election). Back to back two ugly face to face in a deadly, where the head of the UMP can only win with a score of about 60/40, as Hindenburg against Hitler in 1932. Then to block the UMP in the legislative. Not fire at the lake, finally.
-Voting Marine Le Pen. Why not? His social agenda is not less than that of PS, its anti-Islamic rhetoric or anti-immigrant is not more extreme than many tenors UMP. Narrowly elected, Sarko will be even weaker against the left in the legislative elections. Defeated, he leaves room for a Marine Le Pen that the majority vote in two rounds depriving them of any hope to form a majority in his devotion. Single risk, an alliance UMP / FN sauce Italian. So I opt for abstention.
France can be assimilated to Arab dictatorships?
Apparently not, if one believes the right-thinking people, including Jean-Michel apathy echoed in response to an advanced Marianne. In another article of this blog dated 10 February ( Teachers and judges, even combat) I had the opportunity to highlight the many similarities between our beautiful republic yet sarkozyenne and schemes of Ben Ali Mubarak, Gaddafi and others. Nevertheless, I forgot one argument. In 2005, a clear majority of French (and Europeans if they were allowed the opportunity), rejected the proposed "Constitutional Treaty" concocted by the transnational elites. In 2007, the candidate Sarkozy says he will not call into question the will of the French, nor does it affect retirement at age 60. In 2008, he passed by parliament's Lisbon Treaty, a remake of the 2005. In 2010, pension reform in a particularly unfair.
So how is called a regime that cares less about the people's will on issues as fundamental as these?
0 comments:
Post a Comment